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关键词： 房地产调控政策   库存问题   房地产市场   宏观经济环境   二线城市   房地产销售   系统性风险   高层领导  

摘要： 中央高层领导近期多次就房地产去库存问题作出指示。未来一段时期房地产调控政策转向适度定向宽松已成为可预期的大概率事件。房地产去库存是目前复杂宏观经济环境下稳增长的胜负手。这项任务的重要性与迫切性主要体现在房地产市场正经历前所未有的拐点变化,去库存面临的形势较为严峻。统计结果显示,截至10月末,我国商品房待售面积已增至创纪录的68632万平方米,而且最近两年以来，该指标增幅已高达54％；此外，前述数据还是在近期一线以及部分重点二线城市房地产销售强劲反弹情况下录得的结果，这也就是说，构成全国房地产市场主干部分的三线以下城市库存问题，已存在触发区域性系统性风险的可能性。

关键词： 不動產投資   淨現值法   內部報酬率   資本化率   敏感度分析  

摘要： 评估不动产投资效益之相关研究面向广泛，本文以一预售个案为例，运用财务方法中之净现值法、内部报酬率法和资本化率，计算投资持有期间之预期报酬率。同时以租金年成长率与资本利得率进行敏感度分析，以收稳健评估之效。此外，依店面、商办，和住宅分别计算资本化率之收益价格，计算出受之合理价格。政府实际登录制度之实施，是为健全房市发展，努力让房价恢复到正常合理的水准。本文之收益型评估模型可设算不动产投资应有的价值区间，不仅可协助投资人降低资讯不对称的风险，也可提供相关单位，作为判定异常交易之参考。

关键词： 房地产市场   宏观经济环境   商品住宅价格   中国经济   国家统计局   数据显示   大中城市   适度调整  

摘要： 国家统计局新近发布数据显示,8月份全国70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格同比上涨1.7%。这是这一指标自2014年9月份以来首次转正。房地产市场在经历适度调整期后温和回暖,符合中国经济缓中趋稳、稳中向好总体态势。其平稳、健康、有序发展,有利于稳增长、调结构并行不悖齐头并进,依据在于：首先,从稳增长角度来看,无论承认与否,房地产业在现阶段中国经济中的支柱作用显而易见。即使按照较窄口径计算,

关键词： 金融机构   人民币贷款   货币信贷   利率浮动   社会融资   货币的时间价值   货币政策   融资体系   利息收入   利率传导  

摘要： 自2015年10月24日起,央行决定下调金融机构人民币贷款和存款基准利率,以进一步降低社会融资成本。同时,对商业银行和农村合作金融机构等不再设置存款利率浮动上限。自同日起,央行下调金融机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点,以保持银行体系流动性合理充裕,引导货币信贷平稳适度增长。

关键词： 机构投资者   价格波动   上市公司   持股比例  

摘要： 机构投资者能否起到稳定股票价格波动的作用一直是管理层和投资者关注的焦点。对于这个问题,文章实证分析了2008年第4季度至2014年第4季度的上证A股数据,发现我国的机构投资者偏好波动率较低的股票,并没有起到稳定股价的作用,反而会加剧股票价格的波动。对上市公司分组分析后,发现机构投资者对于其持股比例相对较小、持股比例经常变动的股票有更为明显的加剧价格波动的作用。最后,论文结合研究结论提出相关的政策建议。

关键词： 正态分布   时间序列分析   随机利率   年金定价  

摘要： 日趋老龄化的人口基本国情决定了寿险产品普遍化、多样化的必然趋势,研究和推出定价合理的寿险产品具有极大的市场价值。本文结合1955—2014年的基准利率,推算出利率满足正态分布时的保险年金现值模型,再通过R软件分析验证分别得出利率在符合正态分布和ARIMA模型的条件下n年期生存年金的精算现值。在此基础上,本文依据总预测残差方差最小原则,分别对两组拟合利率赋予不同的权重,从而得出最优年金现值。本文的研究成果将对保险公司寿险产品的定价具有极大的参考价值。

关键词： 固定资产   折旧方法   货币时间价值  

摘要： 固定资产属于非流动性资产,当前固定资产折旧方法的共同点都是将原价剔除残值后分摊到使用年限的各年中,即各年所提取的折旧额之和等于固定资产净值。这些方法没有考虑货币的时间价值,不能客观地反映此项长期资产的价值贡献。因此,本文试图在考虑货币时间价值的前提下,将固定资产的折旧方法加以改进,对折旧额的提取进行时间价值的修正,以便于会计的正确核算,利于企业筹资、投资及运营决策效果的合理性提升。

关键词： Semi-Markov process   regime switching models   characteristic function   calibration and simulation option prices   minimum entropy  

摘要： In this work, we consider a stock price process subjected to idiosyncratic Levy jumps and global structural changes attributed to interventions due to a semi-Markov process. The semi-Markov process decomposes both the time and state domains of the price process into sub-intervals and price state sub-domains respectively, where a Levy-Ito process operates. The Levy jumps decompose the space domain of the currently operating Levy process. We derive an infinitesimal generator for a stock price process and a closed form expression for the conditional characteristic function of a log price. The former result is used to derive a PIDE satisfied by option prices, while the latter could be used to retrieve risk neutral densities via Fourier transform and price European vanilla options. In the sequel, we derive the characteristic function of the residence time of a semi-Markov process. Incompleteness of the market is exhibited through a general change of measure. For pricing purpose, the minimum entropy martingale measure is defined as an Esscher transform.

关键词： informal care   long-term-care   monetary valuation   Well-Being Valuation Method   家庭主要照顧者   福康評估法   貨幣價值   長期照護   informal care   long-term-care   monetary valuation   Well-Being Valuation Method   Language of Keywords: English   Chinese  

摘要： Objectives: This paper estimates the monetary value of the loss of well-being by primary informal caregivers who provide long-term care to their family members. Taiwan is rapidly becoming an aging or even aged society. Authorities are planning to establish a long-term care insurance system which will provide both in-kind services (hospital or nursing home care) and cash benefits (subsidies to community or home care). Methods: We used the well-being valuation method to assess the monetary value necessary to maintain the same level of well-being when primary family caregivers are asked to provide an extra hour of care. Data from a survey on primary family caregivers of long-term care in Hualien were used for analyses. Results: Caregivers who were young and male with a low-level education, high income, chronic diseases, and who provided care of longer duration were negatively associated with the well-being of the primary family caregivers. The average number of hours of care per day was 10 hours. The results indicate that an extra hour of informal care is worth approximately NT 138. After adjustment by the Labor Standards Act, an extra hour of informal care is worth approximately NT 236~245. Conclusions: We conclude that the well-being valuation method is a useful complement to the more traditional valuation methods in the health economics literature in general, and more particular for the economic valuation of informal care. If care allowance is built into the long-term care insurance system, it would be necessary to pay the caregivers NT 236~245 for an extra hour of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

关键词： Net Present Value(NPV)   Internal Rate of Return(IRR)   Benefit cost ratio (BC Payback period (PB)   Accounting rate of return (ARR)   Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)   Incremental approach  

摘要： Decisions in capital investment will have major impact on the future well-being of the firm. Normally NPV and IRR measurements to evaluate projects often results in the same findings. However, there are a number of projects for which using IRR is not as effective as using NPV to discount cash flows. This study objective is to analyze conflicting areas between NPV and IRR. In analyzing conflicting areas between NPV and IRR, this paper has been divided into seven parts. In the first part Introduction, Second part objectives, Third part Review of literature, Fourth part theoretical aspects of NPV and IRR, Fifth part types of investment decisions, in the sixth part Comparison between NPV and IRR and in the last part conclusion. The conclusion is both NPV and IRR methods are equivalent as regards the acceptance or rejection of independent conventional investments. Investment projects in the case of lending, Higher rate earned project is preferable, Whereas in the case of borrowing Lower rate paid project is preferred. The IRR rule may also lead multiple rates of return for non-conventional project and fails to work under varying cost of capital conditions. Under a number of situations (at timing of cash flows, scale of investment, or project life span), IRR rule can give a misleading signal for mutually exclusive projects. Since the IRR violates the value additively principle; since it may fail to maximise wealth under certain conditions; and since it is cumbersome, the use of the NPV ruis recommended. In case of mutually exclusive projects having unequal lives, project can be selected on the basis of Annualized NPV and the project which is having higher Annualized NPV( based on Cash Inflows) or lower Annualized NPV(based on Cash Outflows) should be selected. Even though All do not accept, Advocates of reinvestment assumption calculates terminal values of the project to prove their point through Modified Internal Rate of Return. There is no problem in using the NPV metho