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关键词： extreme value theory   diversification benefits   emerging markets   tail dependence  

摘要： This article examines tail dependence, the benefits of diversification and the relation between the two for emerging stock markets. We find most emerging equity markets are independent in limiting joint extremes. However, the dependence in finite levels of extremes is still much stronger than the dependence implied by multivariate normality. Therefore, simple correlation analysis can lead to gross underestimation of the chances of joint crashes in multiple markets. Assuming risk-averse investors guarding against extreme losses, diversification benefits are measured for each two-country optimal portfolio by the reduction in quantile risk measures such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall relative to an undiversified portfolio. It is shown that tail dependence measures developed from multivariate extreme value theory are negatively related to diversification benefits and more importantly can explain diversification benefits better than the correlation coefficient at the most extreme quantiles.

关键词： Dividend policy   Payout Ratio   Dividend Distribution   Dividend Declaration   Declaration Date   Gordon Theory   Modiglian Theory  

摘要： Global experience makes clear the importance of dividend policy as a promoter in large corporations. Corporations are the backbone of the economy as a whole, they are a key source of jobs and certainly the largest taxpayer of an economy. In recent years it appears that most common way of distributuion in global corporations is cash dividend. In the market we can also face the companies that do not pay cash dividend, and companies that do not pay dividend at all. Nowadays in the market economy, corporates consider the decision to pay dividends as a quite relevant, because in this way is known the remaining cash flow for investment back into the corporation and cash flow distributed to shareholders. A stable dividend policy gives positive signal to shareholders and can be seen as positive corporate performance. Therefore, this paper tends to face the policies which can be applied from companies on dividend distribution and the factors which indicates in following a certain policy. The purpose of this paper is to provide information to stakeholders about the factors which determines dividend policy and its role in today"s corporations.

关键词： 省政府   娄勤俭   主持   省长   宏观经济环境   全局意识   经济形势   主要负责人  

摘要： 分析上半年经济形势、安排部署下半年工作。省政府组成部门、直属机构和各市（区）政府的主要负责人列席会议。会议认为，上半年宏观经济环境错综复杂，国内下行压力加大，在全省上下共同努力下，我省经济总体平稳、稳中向好、结构向优，处在上升通道运行的基本态势没有改变。会议指出，目前我国正处于经济增长换挡期，陕西经济保持较高的增速，既符合经济规律，也有现实基础。全省各级政府，特别是领导干部，必须进一步强化担当意识、精细意识和全局意识，以良好的精神状态，努力完成全年目标任务。

关键词： 金砖四国   宏观经济环境   尼日利亚   发展中国家   资源丰富   人口规模   结构合理   经济增长  

摘要： 近十年来，尼日利亚一直被视为潜力巨大的发展中国家。该国不仅资源丰富、人口规模庞大、年龄结构合理，而且拥有骄人的经济增长历史，甚至到最近，其宏观经济环境还一直维持稳定。因此，称尼日利亚为“迷你版金砖四国”似乎并不为过。

关键词： 利率期限结构   均衡模型   无套利模型   市场模型   宏观金融模型  

摘要： 本文主要对利率期限结构的理论研究做综述,以20世纪70年代初和90年代末为分界线,70年代以前称为传统的利率期限结构,主要以描述性研究为主;70年代以后称为现代利率期限结构,主要以随机模型研究为主;从20世纪90年代末,开始了两极分化发展。本文分为三个部分:第一部分对20世纪70年代之前传统利率期限结构的描述性理论作了概括;第二部分是现代利率期限结构的定量模型,包括均衡模型和无套利模型;第三部分则主要介绍20世纪90年代末以来的一些最新研究进展,包括市场模型和宏观金融模型等。

关键词： 收益率水平   现金流   社交网络   二十一世纪   现值   账面价值   广告价值   网络外部性   雅虎   白菜价  

摘要： 今日头条估值远远超过二十一世纪传媒——最近,关于传统媒体与新媒体的估值成为业界关注焦点。媒体估值是怎么估的?为什么生产优质内容的传统媒体往往是"白菜价",而本身并不生产内容仅是作为内容渠道的新媒体却值钱得多?

关键词： 低分红   股利政策   迎合理论  

摘要： 合理的股利政策有利于实现公司的长远发展与股东现期收益的双赢,有利于平衡大股东和中小股东的之间的利益,并对资本市场的健康发展有着重要的意义。以五粮液股份公司为例,利用五粮液历年的股利分配方案以及各项财务数据,分析股利迎合理论是否能解释其低分红现象,并从加强政策约束、改变投资偏好、完善公司治理三个方面提出几点建设性的意见。

关键词： deer browsing   forest restoration   nursery seedlings   oak regeneration   plantation establishment  

摘要： Animal herbivory is a major limiting factor to successful oak (Quercus spp.) regeneration. Although bare-root seedlings are the most commonly used nursery stock type for oak plantings in the eastern United States, container seedlings may better resist planting stress and help enable seedlings to overcome browsing pressure. Four stock types (1 + 0 bare-root seedlings and seedlings in 164, 336, and 520 mL containers) of northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) were planted on two reforestation sites in Indiana, USA, which were fenced to exclude white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman). Seedlings were then subjected to three simulated browsing treatments (control unclipped, dormant clipped, and summer clipped). Container seedlings exhibited higher relative growth rates on both sites;for example, at one site, control seedlings in 336 mL containers had relative height growth of 558% compared with 79% for bare-root control seedlings. On both sites, summer-browsed seedlings of all stock types had negligible height growth, and summer browsing reduced survival at one site by 23% for all stock types compared with control seedlings. Browsing of seedlings during the dormant period did not affect growth for any stock type. Container seedlings may help facilitate rapid establishment of planted oak seedlings, but browse protection is necessary to ensure oak regeneration success in areas of large populations of deer.

关键词： Value-at-risk Expected shortfall   Long memory   Structural breaks   GARCH-type models   Stock markets  

摘要： This paper addresses the question whether dual long memory (LM), asymmetry and structural breaks in stock market returns matter when forecasting the value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) for short and long trading positions. We answer this question for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. Empirically, we test the occurrence of structural breaks in the GCC return data using the Inclan and Tiao (1994)'s algorithm and we check the relevance of LM using Shimotsu (2006) procedure before estimating the ARFIMA-FIGARCH and ARFIMA-FIAPARCH models with different innovations' distributions and computing VaR and ES. Our results show that all the GCC market's volatilities exhibit significant structural breaks matching mainly with the 2008-2009 global financial crises and the Arab spring. Also, they are governed by LM process either in the mean or in the conditional variance which cannot be due to the occurrence of structural breaks. Furthermore, the forecasting ability analysis shows that the FIAPARCH model under skewed Student-t distribution turn out to improve substantially the VaR and the ES forecasts. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： Agriculture   Exchange rate   Financial deepening   Inflation  

摘要： Evaluating the responsiveness of agricultural supply to macro-economic environmental factors is an important step to implementing agricultural policies in Nigeria. This study investigated agricultural output responsiveness to the level of infrastructure, rate of Inflation, exchange rate volatility, and financial deepening in the sector using annual time series spanning from 1971 to 2008, and source from CBN statistical bulletin. The study through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test of unit root shows that all variables were stationary and integrated of the same order [I(1)]. Further, the Johannsen test of cointegration established the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Moreover, from the Vector Error Correction model estimated, aggregate agricultural supply was inelastic to the level of infrastructure, exchange rate volatility and financial development; while the rate of inflation appears elastic. Also, it was uncovered that exchange rate volatility and inflation rate affect the sector negatively. It was based on the findings that the researchers proffers improving and providing quality infrastructure facilities to rural communities and a well-coordinated and articulated monetary and fiscal policy to abate the effect of exchange rate volatility and soaring inflation rate on agricultural supply in Nigeria.