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关键词： 宏观经济环境   金融发展   增长趋缓   展望   现状   刺激政策   金融行业   流动性危机  

摘要： 当前．国内外宏观经济环境跌宕起伏．变数颇多。国际经济复苏进程缓慢，外部环境仍不容乐观；与此同时。我国经济处于转型下行时期．国内经济刺激政策措施逐步退出．经济呈现回落态势。在诸多不确定因素的影响下．2013年上半年我国金融行业整体景气度下滑．主要原因是受美国量化宽松政策逐渐退出的影响、在金融业中引入适度风险以引导资金进入实业、房地产业的虹吸效应导致资金沉淀等引发的流动性危机．针对上述现象．我们认为必须改变目前以外汇占款为主发行人民币的模式、深化税制改革等措施以维持金融行业的稳定。

关键词： 投资收益率   社保基金   股票投资   全国社会保障基金理事会   主力   通货膨胀率   2008年   背景导入  

摘要： 一、背景导入 全国社会保障基金理事会成立11年来年均收益率8．44％，比同期通货膨胀率高6个百分点。2011年实现投资收益率降0．8596，是过去11年中社保基金第三次未跑赢当年CPI（2011年为5．4％）；此前两次分别是2004年和2008年。尽管股票占整个社保资产配置只有20％，但它所实现收益却高达整个社保基金总收益的40％。

关键词： Maiduguri   Wind energy   Wind energy conversion systems   Wind speed  

摘要： Wind turbines with power ratings of 20, 1000, 2000 and 2300 kW were examined in this study to assess their energy generation and economic analysis for the city of Maiduguri (11.850 N; 13.083 E; altitude 354 m), North-Eastern Nigeria. Costs of electricity were estimated based on the present value cost (PVC) method using wind speed data for9 years. The wind speed, measured at the height of 10 m was obtained from Nigerian Metrological Department. Monthly, seasonal and annual wind characteristics of the site were analysed. The result indicates that the Maximum monthly mean wind speed value of 15.78 m/s was recorded in June while the maximum annual mean wind speed was 11.63 m/s. the monthly mean power output and accumulated annual energy output were obtained as 15.91 MWh and 13.61 MWh/year respectively. The least costs of electricity Production per kilowatt hour was obtained with Avantis AV1010 model at 99-m hub height, while the highest is obtained with P10-20 model at 36.6-m hub height.

关键词： G11   G15   industry structure   international stock market correlations   trade structure  

摘要： We use monthly stock indices for 58 countries to construct pairwise correlations of returns and explain these correlations with risk-adjusted differences in industrial structure across countries. We find that countries with similar industries exhibit higher stock market comovements. The results are robust to the inclusion of other regressors such as differences in income per capita, stock market capitalizations, measures of institutions, as well as various fixed time, country, and country-pair effects. Our results are consistent with models where the impact of each industry-specific shock is proportional to the share of this industry in the overall industrial output of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

关键词： Value at Risk   Historical Simulation   Maximum Likelihood Method   Normal Distribution  

摘要： Value at Risk (VaR) is a tool to predict the greater loss less than the certain confidence level over a period of time. Value at Risk Historical Simulation produce reliable value of VaR because of the historical data and measure the skewness of the observe data. So, Value at Risk well used by investors to determine the risk to be faced on their investment. To calculate VAR it is better to use maximum likelihood, which has been considered for estimating from historical data and also available for estimating nonlinear model. It is also a mathematic function that can approximate return. From the maximum likelihood function with normal distribution, we can draw the normal curve at one tail test. This research conducted to calculate Value at Risk using maximum likelihood. The normal curve will be compared with data return at each bank (Bank Mandiri, Bank BRI and Bank BNI). Empirical results demonstrated that Bank BNI in 2009, Bank BRI in 2010 and Bank BNI in 2011, had less value of VaR by historical simulation in each year. It is concluded that by using maximum likelihood method in the estimation of VaR, has certain appropriates compared with the normal curve.

关键词： 证券市场监管   证券市场监管体制   证券市场监管法律制度  

摘要： 证券市场的监管是证券市场存在和发展的基石,完善的证券监管法律制度是证券市场健康发展的重要保障。近几年来,我国证券市场日趋成熟,监管体制日益完善,但仍然存在着许多问题,亟待进一步完善证券监管法律制度。本文通过对证券监管法律制度基本理念的阐释,对我国证券市场监管法律制度现状的表述,对我国证券市场监管法律制度存在缺陷的剖析,进而提出完善证券监管法律制度的建议,以期保障证券市场的健康、有序、快速发展。

关键词： 代理理论   股利政策   现金股利  

摘要： 股利政策作为现在公司理财的三大核心内容之一,是公司筹资、投资活动的逻辑延续。股利政策一直是国内外学者研究的焦点,各种理论层出不穷。本文基于代理理论,从降低代理成本假说和利益侵占假说两个角度,就国内外相关文献进行了综述。

关键词： 海冰   海洋结构   冰厚重现值   置信区间   极值分布  

摘要： 不同重现期的年极值冰厚是有冰海区建筑物设计的关键指标。目前在确定设计冰厚时,往往只给出点估计。而求解设计冰厚的置信区间,在某一置信水平下获取设计值的范围,可以确定设计重现值的不确定性,给海工结构物的设计与建造提供指导。采用极大似然方法区间估计,给出了Gumbel分布、三参数Weibull分布、三参数对数正态分布和P-III型分布置信区间的求解过程。利用渤海北部营口和葫芦岛海区历年总冰厚极大值的实测数据,基于以上4种分布型式,采用极大似然法求得不同重现期下冰厚重现值的置信区间,并对各分布型式进行了优选比较。结果表明,选取P-III型分布求解这两地海冰厚度重现值的置信区间较优。

关键词： 中国勘察设计协会   勘察设计企业   宏观经济环境   勘察设计行业   管理顾问   潜在危机   交流会   主办  

摘要： 伴随着宏观经济环境的变化,已经在＂转型发展＂之路上奔波许久的勘察设计企业再次面临考验。近期,由中国勘察设计协会主办的＂工程公司转型发展与技术转化＂现场交流会及由天强管理顾问等主办的第七届勘察设计行业院长论坛,分别就新形势下,如何保持企业健康、稳定成长,怎样选择合适的发展路径,需要注意哪些潜在危机等问题,展开了深入探讨。

关键词： 渗漏排水泵   长轴深井泵   井用潜水泵   比选   技术与功能   费用现值法  

摘要： 渗漏排水泵是水电站重要的辅助设备,关系着电站的安全运行。本文从技术上定性分析大修和更换新型的可行性,应用费用现值比较法定量分析两种方案的经济性,从而确定了采用井用潜水泵。