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关键词： 风险价值   风险溢出   GARCH-VaR   CoVaR  

摘要： VaR与CoVaR模型分别度量金融资产风险价值与风险溢出。通过建立GARCH-VaR模型分别计算上证市场、深证市场与创业板市场的VaR与CoVaR,研究我国股市的风险价值与多市场之间的风险溢出效应。实证结果表明:上证、深证和创业板的风险价值依次增大并且走势相近;风险价值较小的市场会对风险价值较大的市场有更强的风险溢出效应。

关键词： 货币时间价值   企业财务管理   财务风险  

摘要： 货币时间价值是指货币在一定时间内,经过投资或者存款而产生出来更多的价值,俗称钱生钱。在企业管理中,货币时间价值决定了一个企业投资或者经营的情况,货币时间价值越高,则企业投资效果越好,企业经营状况越好,若货币时间价值偏低,则意味着企业财务管理效果不佳。其主要影响因素一般是通货膨胀或资金周转比例不协调,为更好强化企业财务管理工作,则需要以货币时间价值为核心,做好财务管理工作。本文将从货币时间价值在财务管理实践中存在的问题入手,全面展开货币时间价值在财务管理实践中的应用。

关键词： “十四五”时期   宏观经济环境   创新驱动   现代财政制度  

摘要： 基于对经济总量、增速、居民收入、消费、就业及民生保障等方面发展基础的分析,结合“十四五”及今后一段时期我国经济发展面临的国内外环境、发展动能切换、结构调整等因素,对财政运行的宏观环境做出研判。从社会主要矛盾具有持续性、人口老龄化问题、财政收支缺口以及发展新动能显现效果具有等待期等角度,分析财政运行面临的核心挑战。有效应对这些挑战的路径在于加快建立现代财政制度。应当坚持财政作为国家治理的基础和重要支柱这一总体定位,坚守为推动实现现代化强国目标提供战略性支撑,以扩大有效内需为基点助推我国在短期内迈入高收入经济体。同时要大力推进财政本身的制度建设,确保运转顺畅和可持续,并为推动完善宏观经济治理提供桥梁。

关键词： 量子场理论   利率期限结构   地方政府债远期利率   风险调整  

摘要： 本文利用量子场理论分别对代表无风险的国债远期利率期限结构和代表信用违约风险的利差远期利率期限结构采用二维欧几里德量子场建模,进而构建风险调整下的地方政府债远期利率期限结构.实证分析比较量子场理论下的新模型、量子场理论下的传统模型和传统金融两因子HJM模型的拟合效果,推导出新模型下地方政府债瞬时远期利率的更新过程,对地方政府债瞬时远期利率进行预测并做稳健性检验.研究结构表明:新模型的预测效果显著优于量子场理论下的传统模型和传统金融两因子HJM模型.

关键词： Lottery-type stocks   Turn-of-the-month effect   Earnings announcement   Seasoned equity offerings   REAL ACTIVITIES MANIPULATION   EARNINGS-ANNOUNCEMENT DRIFT   EQUITY ISSUES   DEMAND CURVES   MARKET   MANAGEMENT   RETURNS   UNDERREACTION   INFORMATION   TIMELINESS  

摘要： We show that retail investors' cyclical demand for lottery stocks, which tends to peak at the turn-of-the-month (ToM), has implications for firms' financial activities. Consistent with the notion that the peak in demand is driven by a propensity to gamble that is associated with inattention, we find underreaction to earnings news issued at the ToM by lottery-type firms located in areas with many gambling investors. Lottery-type firms are more likely to issue bad earnings news at ToM, thus benefiting from a less negative price reaction. Similarly, seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by lottery-type firms are often strategically timed at the ToM, conceivably to take advantage of local retail investors' underreaction and thereby temper the typically negative immediate stock price reaction to the issuance news. Further suggestive of strategic exploitation of local investors peak in demand at the ToM period, lottery-type firms' SEOs at the ToM are also more likely to be offered via an accelerated method that saves the direct marketing costs associated with other offer methods.

关键词： Volatility   Co-movements   Dependency   Copulas   Latin America   ECONOMIC TIME-SERIES   FINANCIAL CRISIS   CONTAGION   INTERDEPENDENCE   SPILLOVERS   MODELS   RISK   US  

摘要： Purpose Risk management has been crucial to investors and regulators for pursuing market diversification opportunities and developing strategies to ensure market stability. This study examines the dependence structures of volatility, related to co-movements and macroeconomic effects, among Latin American stock markets and the risk-return spectrum benefits in the Latin American market using time-varying returns and volatility forecasts within a multivariate structure. Design/methodology/approach The sample comprised the largest stock markets in Latin America during the period from January 2000 to December 2017 and copulas and multivariate models were applied. Findings The results indicated that the copula with the best fit for modeling the dependence structure of the markets was symmetric Joe-Clayton with time-varying parameters. The dependence volatility structure was higher in the positive (upper tail) than in the negative (lower tail) returns, which may indicate that the Latin American markets had diversification benefits during downturns. Evidence of market coupling was found during times of the global crisis (subprime crisis) in Latin America. The presence of monetary and temporal effects over the dependence structures suggests that investors may obtain gains in a multivariate structure with copula distributions. Originality/value The findings will be of interest to researchers and practitioners for several reasons. First, this study contributes to the growing literature on the relationship between market dependence and volatility. Second, it indicates that the Latin American markets may present diversification advantages during downturns. Third, it informs the influence of macroeconomic effects on Latin American markets. The models that included the nonnormal and asymmetric characteristics of the financial market yielded better results in terms of less information loss and data adherence.

关键词： 历史成本   现值   售后返还   会计处理  

摘要： 在新冠肺炎疫情蔓延的2020年,央行、银保监会对资金密集型的房地产行业监管日益严格,这必然要求房企必须从自身经营效率中寻求发展,导致出现了房企甚至不惜销售后分期返还部分房款的模式,本文就该模式下的会计处理进行了分析。

关键词： 航天产业   商业航天   冲击和影响   发展态势   不确定性   宏观经济环境   全球蔓延   新态势  

摘要： 自2020年初以来,新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延,国际秩序重塑的巨大不确定性突显,全球航天产业也正在被冲击和影响。后疫情时期,全球宏观经济环境呈现新特征,国际商业航天发展呈现新态势,我国商业航天产业进入发展新时期。

关键词： 百货零售业   股票   投资   财务比率   南京新百  

摘要： 2020年受新冠肺炎疫情影响,百货零售行业面临第一、二季度的市场寒冬,承受着巨大压力,但也积极响应国家政策,实施各项举措以获得更好发展。通过南京新百的发展现状、行业情况、宏观经济、主要财务指标来分析企业的情况,从而对其营运能力、盈利能力、偿债能力等方面进行评估,结合多方因素评估南京新百股票的投资价值,为投资者提供投资建议。

关键词： 主要经济指标   石油和化学工业   经济运行   产业供应链   石油和化工行业   宏观经济环境   持续恶化   集聚  

摘要： 2020年是极不平凡的一年。新冠疫情突发,全球经济急剧恶化,产业供应链遭受重挫。在党中央坚强领导下,石油和化工行业经济运行迅速终止了下滑局面,呈现稳定恢复态势。经济结构明显改善,增长动力不断集聚,市场逐步回暖,主要经济指标企稳向好。但是,油气开采业效益持续恶化;国际宏观经济环境依然严峻复杂。