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关键词： 经济形势分析   经济增长   展望   宏观经济环境   结构性改革   平稳增长   总体平衡   市场供求  

摘要： 2018年经济将保持平稳增长，市场供求总体平衡，价格小幅上涨。这将为转入高质量发展提供较好的宏观经济环境。随着供给侧结构性改革进一步深入推进。十九大精神全面落实。预计以提质增效、减排降耗为主线的新经济增长特点将日益明显。

关键词： 进出口企业   机电产品   北京   年会   中国   外贸   国务院发展研究中心   宏观经济环境  

摘要： 2017年1月20-22日,第12届中国机电产品进出口企业年会在北京召开.机电商会特邀国务院发展研究中心、商务部相关领导、行业专家,就最新外贸形势、政策和企业关注的相关问题进行详细深入的探讨与解读.来自全国二十多个省市、自治区的地方商务主管部门的领导,机电商会副会长单位、理事单位和骨干会员,涵盖工程承包、家电、电子、汽车、工程机械、光伏等各个领域的300多家企业及代表共400余人出席了此次会议.这是机电商会为政府相关部门与行业和企业沟通信息、方便企业及时了解当前国家宏观经济环境及相关政策与措施,共同研讨机电行业热点。

关键词： 国内资本市场   行为金融学   投资策略   投资决策   制约作用   心理因素   主观因素   A股市场  

摘要： 投资者作为参与资本市场者,在投资的过程中非常容易受到自身主观因素与心理因素等的制约作用。特别是在我国的A股市场当中,不少决策投资都要求逆人性化,相比较于传统的金融学,结合行为金融学可以对国内的资本市场投资决策进行探究,从而分析一系列部正常的投资现象。下面,笔者根据国内资本市场的实际现状,以行为金融学作为角度对我国资本市场中的投资策略问题进行了简要地分析。

关键词： Stock market   Minimal spanning tree   Threshold network   Crisis   COMMUNITY STRUCTURE   CROSS-CORRELATIONS   DYNAMICS   EXCHANGE   RETURNS   INDEXES  

摘要： We consider the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the global stock market before, during, and after the crisis. We generate complex networks from a cross-correlation matrix such as the threshold network (TN) and the minimal spanning tree (MST). In the threshold network, we assign a threshold value by using the mean and standard deviation of cross-correlation coefficients. When the threshold is equal to the mean of these coefficients, we observe a giant cluster composed of three economic zones in all three periods. We find that during the crisis, the countries in the Asian zone were weakly connected and those in the American zone were tightly linked to the countries in the European zone. At a large threshold, the three economic zones were fragmented. The European countries connected tightly, but the Asian countries bound weakly. The MST constructed from the distance matrix. In the MST, France remained a hub node in all three periods. The size of the MST shrank slightly during the crisis. We observe a scaling relation between the network distance of nodes from the central hub (France) and the geometrical distance. We observe the topological change of the financial network structure during the global financial crisis. The TN and MST are complementary roles to understand the connecting structure of financial complex networks. The TN reveals to observe the clustering effects and robustness of the cluster during the financial crisis. The MST shows the central hub and connecting node among the economic zones.

关键词： Natural gas market   Qatar Exchange   Causality-in-mean   Causality-in-variance   Volatility breaks   Cross-correlation functions   OIL PRICE SHOCKS   AUTOREGRESSIVE TIME-SERIES   VOLATILITY TRANSMISSION   UNIT-ROOT   CRUDE-OIL   COMMODITY PRICES   PETROLEUM PRICES   EQUITY MARKETS   SHORT-RUN   CAUSALITY  

摘要： This paper aims to provide an analysis of both mean and variance dynamics between natural gas and stock markets, using the gas-rich Gulf state of Qatar as a case study. The empirical investigation is conducted in the context of the modified cross-correlation function testing procedure of Hong (2001), after removing the influence of relevant regional and international factors and controlling for structural breaks in the conditional volatility process of either market. The results reveal the presence of mean and volatility spillovers from natural gas prices to stock prices in Qatar's emerging market, with the opposite direction being denied. The speed with which the stock market absorbs and reacts to variations in gas prices turns out to be somewhat slow. The findings have important implications for investors and policymakers. (C) 2017 Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： Service Design   value cocreation   new service development   VALUE CO-CREATION   DOMINANT LOGIC   CUSTOMER   INNOVATION   EXPERIENCE   SYSTEMS   OPPORTUNITIES   CAPABILITIES  

摘要： Although new service development (NSD) studies have contributed to developing systematic approaches to service innovation, their product-oriented and provider-centric perspectives are limited in embracing a value cocreation concept. We investigate how Service Design, as a human-centered and creative approach to service innovation, can reframe NSD processes to implement value cocreation. Multiple case studies on Service Design projects indicate that design-centric approaches can contribute to the whole NSD process in a way that connects organizations' managerial practices to value cocreation, in that (1) contextual and holistic understandings of user experiences can inform value propositions that better fit users' value-in-use, (2) codesign with creative supporting tools can facilitate value cocreation by helping users better apply their own resources, (3) prototyping can optimize firms' resource and process configuration to facilitate users' engagement with the service, (4) aligning system actors to the user experience can organize and mobilize them to better support users' value creation, and (5) user-centered approaches and methods can help organizational staff build long-term capability for supporting users' value creation. Based on the link between Service Design, NSD, and value cocreation, we propose a conceptual NSD model, geared toward value cocreation.

关键词： Complex networks   Stocks   Similarity   Financial indicators   EVOLUTION ANALYSIS   LISTED COMPANIES   CHINA  

摘要： A financial market is a complex system consisting of many interacting units. In general, due to the various types of information exchange within the industry, there is a relationship between the stocks that can reveal their clear structural characteristics. Complex network methods are powerful tools for studying the internal structure and function of the stock market, which allows us to better understand the stock market. Applying complex network methodology, a stock associated network model based on financial indicators is created. Accordingly, we set threshold value and use modularity to detect the community network, and we analyze the network structure and community cluster characteristics of different threshold situations. The study finds that the threshold value of 0.7 is the abrupt change point of the network, At the same time, as the threshold value increases, the independence of the community strengthens. This study provides a method of researching stock market based on the financial indicators, exploring the structural similarity of financial indicators of stocks. Also, it provides guidance for investment and corporate financial management. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 证券分析   价值投资   成长性  

摘要： 自股票诞生以来,人们致力于通过各种股票价格预测理论从股票的价格波动中获得收益,但长期以来并未形成一套在逻辑上经得起推敲,并被实践证明的有效理论,直到本杰明·格雷厄姆的《证券分析》一书诞生,标志着证券投资真正成为一门科学,价值投资也逐渐广为人知。文章结合国内外一些知名投资大师的经验总结,尝试总结出一套在实践上成熟可用的模式和方法。

关键词： 股票投资收益   净资产收益率   相关性   资金流通   资源配置效率   证券交易市场   资本市场   要素配置  

摘要： 一、引言 资本市场是为资金交易双方提供资金流通的要素配置平台,是为提高资源配置效率、基于价值发现和价值提升的有序系统。证券交易市场是基于股票等股权交易为基础的长期资金融通平台。在这个市场上,投资者通过购买股票而向市场提供资金获得投资收益和资本利得（出售股票差价）,

关键词： 金融资产配置   杠杆率   宏观经济环境   蓄水池   金融化  

摘要： 本文利用2007-2016年中国A股非金融类上市公司的半年期数据,系统考察了金融资产配置对企业杠杆率的影响,并重点分析了宏观经济环境的调节作用。结果显示,金融资产持有份额上升有助于降低企业杠杆率,而金融渠道获利增加显著推升了企业杠杆率,且上述效应主要体现于短期负债。同时,在经济增长和宽松货币政策的影响下,金融资产配置的作用被弱化。本文结论表明,金融资产持有份额扮演着"蓄水池"动机,但金融渠道获利刻画的"金融化"特征反而会加剧企业杠杆率。因此在供给侧结构性改革的"去杠杆"进程中,需要特别关注企业对金融渠道获利的过度依赖,企业对高杠杆的路径依赖将不利于宏观层面的去杠杆。