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关键词： Log-periodicity   Price forecasting   Diffusion model   Pattern recognition   Non-linear time series   Financial market  

摘要： The aim of this research is to propose an alarm index to forecast the crash of the Korean financial market in extension to the idea of Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, which uses the log-periodic functions and pattern recognition algorithm. We discover that the crashes of the Korean financial market can be classified into domestic and global crises where each category requires different window length of fitted datasets. Therefore, we add the window length as a new parameter to enhance the performance of alarm index. Distinguishing the domestic and global crises separately, our alarm index demonstrates more robust forecasting than previous model by showing the error diagram and the results of trading performance. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 土地現值公告   行政規則   法規命令   行政處分   一般處分  

摘要： 土地现值在现行法律秩序中扮演重要角色，平均地权条例第46条规定，直辖市或县（市）政府对於辖区内之土地，应经常调查其地价动态，绘制地价区段图并估计区段地价後，提经地价评议委员会评定，据以编制土地现值表於每年1月1日公告，作为土地移转及设定典权时，申报土地移转现值之参考：并作为主管机关审核土地移转现值及补偿徵收土地地价之依据。由於土地现值每年有所异动，影响人民权益甚钜，直辖市或县（市）政府土地现值表之公告常成为法律争议。土地现值公告之法律性质为何，无论在司法实务、行政实务或学术理论众说纷纭，影响人民提起行政救济之时间点与救济类型。本文目的在分析有关土地现值公告法律性质之争议，并提出看法，希望对此议题之厘清有所帮助。

关键词： 公司治理   股票流动性   公司价值  

摘要： 公司治理、股票流动性与公司价值是决定我国新三板市场发展的关键因素之一。本文利用2015年中国新三板市场的创新层公司数据,使用多元线性回归和联立方程模型方法,实证检验了公司治理、股票流动性与公司价值之间的关系。研究发现:(1)公司治理对股票流动性存在负向作用。(2)股票流动性对公司价值有显著正向影响。(3)公司治理中的机构持股与股票流动性互为负相关,股票流动性与公司价值互为正相关。

关键词： 企业转型   科技创新   沙钢集团   宏观经济环境   核心竞争力   钢材市场   配套企业   现代物流  

摘要： “十二五”期间，沙钢集团进入了发展的转型升级阶段。面对宏观经济环境和钢材市场的重大变化，沙钢加快转型升级步伐，在进一步做大做强钢铁主业的基础上，重点实施拉长产业链、搞好配套企业、发展现代物流、搞好资本运作等四大转型升级工程，积极拓展与铡铁主业关联度大的多元化经营领域，使沙钢进一步形成科学发展新格局，增强企业的核心竞争力。

关键词： 经济形势分析   经济增长   展望   宏观经济环境   结构性改革   平稳增长   总体平衡   市场供求  

摘要： 2018年经济将保持平稳增长，市场供求总体平衡，价格小幅上涨。这将为转入高质量发展提供较好的宏观经济环境。随着供给侧结构性改革进一步深入推进。十九大精神全面落实。预计以提质增效、减排降耗为主线的新经济增长特点将日益明显。

关键词： 进出口企业   机电产品   北京   年会   中国   外贸   国务院发展研究中心   宏观经济环境  

摘要： 2017年1月20-22日,第12届中国机电产品进出口企业年会在北京召开.机电商会特邀国务院发展研究中心、商务部相关领导、行业专家,就最新外贸形势、政策和企业关注的相关问题进行详细深入的探讨与解读.来自全国二十多个省市、自治区的地方商务主管部门的领导,机电商会副会长单位、理事单位和骨干会员,涵盖工程承包、家电、电子、汽车、工程机械、光伏等各个领域的300多家企业及代表共400余人出席了此次会议.这是机电商会为政府相关部门与行业和企业沟通信息、方便企业及时了解当前国家宏观经济环境及相关政策与措施,共同研讨机电行业热点。

关键词： 国内资本市场   行为金融学   投资策略   投资决策   制约作用   心理因素   主观因素   A股市场  

摘要： 投资者作为参与资本市场者,在投资的过程中非常容易受到自身主观因素与心理因素等的制约作用。特别是在我国的A股市场当中,不少决策投资都要求逆人性化,相比较于传统的金融学,结合行为金融学可以对国内的资本市场投资决策进行探究,从而分析一系列部正常的投资现象。下面,笔者根据国内资本市场的实际现状,以行为金融学作为角度对我国资本市场中的投资策略问题进行了简要地分析。

关键词： Stock market   Minimal spanning tree   Threshold network   Crisis  

摘要： We consider the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the global stock market before, during, and after the crisis. We generate complex networks from a cross-correlation matrix such as the threshold network (TN) and the minimal spanning tree (MST). In the threshold network, we assign a threshold value by using the mean and standard deviation of cross-correlation coefficients. When the threshold is equal to the mean of these coefficients, we observe a giant cluster composed of three economic zones in all three periods. We find that during the crisis, the countries in the Asian zone were weakly connected and those in the American zone were tightly linked to the countries in the European zone. At a large threshold, the three economic zones were fragmented. The European countries connected tightly, but the Asian countries bound weakly. The MST constructed from the distance matrix. In the MST, France remained a hub node in all three periods. The size of the MST shrank slightly during the crisis. We observe a scaling relation between the network distance of nodes from the central hub (France) and the geometrical distance. We observe the topological change of the financial network structure during the global financial crisis. The TN and MST are complementary roles to understand the connecting structure of financial complex networks. The TN reveals to observe the clustering effects and robustness of the cluster during the financial crisis. The MST shows the central hub and connecting node among the economic zones.

关键词： Natural gas market   Qatar Exchange   Causality-in-mean   Causality-in-variance   Volatility breaks   Cross-correlation functions  

摘要： This paper aims to provide an analysis of both mean and variance dynamics between natural gas and stock markets, using the gas-rich Gulf state of Qatar as a case study. The empirical investigation is conducted in the context of the modified cross-correlation function testing procedure of Hong (2001), after removing the influence of relevant regional and international factors and controlling for structural breaks in the conditional volatility process of either market. The results reveal the presence of mean and volatility spillovers from natural gas prices to stock prices in Qatar's emerging market, with the opposite direction being denied. The speed with which the stock market absorbs and reacts to variations in gas prices turns out to be somewhat slow. The findings have important implications for investors and policymakers. (C) 2017 Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： Service Design   value cocreation   new service development  

摘要： Although new service development (NSD) studies have contributed to developing systematic approaches to service innovation, their product-oriented and provider-centric perspectives are limited in embracing a value cocreation concept. We investigate how Service Design, as a human-centered and creative approach to service innovation, can reframe NSD processes to implement value cocreation. Multiple case studies on Service Design projects indicate that design-centric approaches can contribute to the whole NSD process in a way that connects organizations' managerial practices to value cocreation, in that (1) contextual and holistic understandings of user experiences can inform value propositions that better fit users' value-in-use, (2) codesign with creative supporting tools can facilitate value cocreation by helping users better apply their own resources, (3) prototyping can optimize firms' resource and process configuration to facilitate users' engagement with the service, (4) aligning system actors to the user experience can organize and mobilize them to better support users' value creation, and (5) user-centered approaches and methods can help organizational staff build long-term capability for supporting users' value creation. Based on the link between Service Design, NSD, and value cocreation, we propose a conceptual NSD model, geared toward value cocreation.